Ireland will contribute to the Paris Agreement via the Nationally Determined Commitment tabled by the EU in March 2015 on behalf of Member States, which commits to at least a 40% reduction in EU-wide emissions by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels); this is based on reductions in the ETS and non-ETS sectors of 43% and 30% respectively (compared to 2005).
A proposal on the non-ETS targets for individual Member States, the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), was published by the European Commission in July 2016. The ESR proposal suggests a 39% GHG reduction target for Ireland, based on GDP per capita, for the period 2021 to 2030. This target is adjusted downward for cost-effectiveness by 9 percentage points to give a headline target of 30%. While this target is not yet agreed, it is clear that it will present an enormous challenge for Ireland, which will require substantial investment by both the public and private sectors, as well as a broad range of non-financial policy tools, including regulations, standards, education initiatives and targeted information campaigns. Work is ongoing to cost various suites of measures that could meet the 2030 target as cost-effectively as possible.